SHANGHAI — The official exchange rate for China’s currency stood unchanged this morning, in line with the central bank’s warning that the value of the yuan would not dramatically rise after its two-year peg to the dollar ended.
The central bank left the yuan’s parity rate against the U.S. dollar unchanged today at 6.8275, the state-run Xinhua News Agency said. The rate is a weighted average of prices given by market makers, excluding highest and lowest offers.
A stronger yuan would make Chinese exports more expensive and bring relief to foreign manufacturers that have struggled to compete. But Beijing has insisted currency stability is fundamental to economic growth, denying other nations’ accusations that the yuan is unfairly undervalued.
The central bank’s announcement Saturday that China would increase exchange rate flexibility seemed critically timed, coming a week ahead of a G-20 summit meeting at which President Hu Jintao and other Chinese officials are likely to face critics of the currency policy.
China is intent on steering a path to economic recovery. With workers at home demanding wage increases — which would also increase the price of exports — the central bank has sought to curb speculation of a major rise in the value of the yuan, also called the renminbi.
"There is at present no basis for major fluctuation or change in the renminbi exchange rate," the People’s Bank of China said in a lengthy commentary Sunday on its decision a day earlier.
The statement implies that China considers the current exchange rate to be roughly where it ought to be, and economists said they didn’t anticipate big swings in the yuan’s value.
Keeping it at a "reasonable, balanced level" would contribute to economic stability and help restructure the Chinese economy to put greater emphasis on services and domestic consumption instead of exports, the statement said.
It said China would rely more on a basket of currencies that includes the U.S. dollar to determine the exchange rate, rather than the dollar alone.
China allowed the yuan to rise by about 20 percent beginning in 2005, but halted that two years ago to help Chinese manufacturers weather the global financial crisis.
Since then, the yuan’s value has been pegged to the dollar at an exchange rate of roughly 6.83 to $1. The government sets the rate each day before the start of trading and retains powerful tools to control its movement.
Any sudden rise in the yuan could ruin businesses already operating on razor-thin margins and cost jobs. It could also drive down the value of China’s $2.4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.
CENTRAL BANK INVOLVED
Because of China’s large trade surpluses, the central bank intervenes heavily in the exchange market, buying up excess foreign exchange earnings to keep the yuan’s value from rising.
Although Saturday’s announcement of more flexibility mentioned few specific steps and set no targets, it generally won praise overseas — along with some criticism.
President Barack Obama said the move would help protect the economic recovery, while the European Commission said it would benefit "both the Chinese economy and the global economy."
But with China’s economy growing at double-digit rates, boosted by 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) in stimulus spending and record bank lending to finance construction projects, Beijing can afford to move more quickly, some say.
SCHUMER RIPS POLICY
"Just a day after there was much hoopla about the Chinese finally changing their policy, they are already backing off," U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-NY, said Sunday, adding that he planned to move forward with a bill that would punish Beijing for its currency policies.
"It is only strong legislation that will get the Chinese to change and will stop jobs and wealth from flowing out of America as a result of unfair trade policies," he said in a statement.
Some Chinese experts criticized Saturday’s announcement as a cave-in to foreign pressure that would ultimately damage China’s crucial export sector.
"From an economic angle, the appreciation of the renminbi will have a definite effect on exports, but in terms of politics and macroeconomic policy, it can be seen as a result of the need for balance," said Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance of Renmin University.
Also writing on the website of the National Business Daily, a leading business newspaper, economist Ye Tan said the move would pile pressure on exporters already contending with a roughly 15 percent appreciation of the renminbi against the euro, as well as rising labor costs.
"China’s exports are unstable, and this is having a major impact on the actual economy," Ye wrote. "Appreciation of the renminbi needs to wait until economic readjustment is certain and China’s domestic demand has truly expanded."
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