Retail group offers weak holiday forecast
NEW YORK — Holiday sales are expected to grow at the slowest pace in six years as shoppers worry about jobs, the housing and stock markets, and gasoline and food prices, according to a forecast by the National Retail Federation being made public today.
The outlook from the trade group joins other weak holiday predictions issued so far that probably will lead to discounting and pre-Thanksgiving sales blitzes as stores try to pry dollars from frugal shoppers.
Merchants also have scaled back holiday inventories and seasonal sales staff from a year ago. The challenges are compounded by a holiday season that has five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas Day than in 2007, which could make consumers delay their buying.
"You don’t have a good picture," said Rosalind Wells, the federation’s chief economist. Last week’s financial turbulence, from Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy protection to a proposed $700 billion government bailout of the financial system, "only increases the uncertainty and anxiety," she said payday loan. Wells said she doesn’t expect an economic turnaround until the second half of next year.
The Washington-based trade association predicted that sales will rise a modest 2.2 percent for the November and December period from a year ago, to $470.4 billion. That would be below the 10-year average of 4.4 percent holiday sales growth and a bit below the 2.4 percent gain last year. It also would be the slowest pace since 1.3 percent in 2002.
Total retail sales figures from the federation exclude business from auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants. The estimate also excludes online sales and reflects last week’s financial turmoil, Wells said.
Two other forecasts, from Deloitte LLP and TNS Retail Forward, made before the recent turbulence had predicted the weakest holiday growth since 1991, although they use different metrics.
Filed under: business by Fred